Dwight Basketball 1.4: The typical three
Three-point percentage becomes the typical season for a low-volume shooter, and three-point attempt share spreads a little wider. Every other category stays on 1.3.
Basketball 1.4 leaves the 1.3 projection in place and changes two rates. The score counts a player who takes no threes as a 0% shooter, and for someone projected to shoot only a few, that is the common season. 1.4 publishes that typical percentage instead of the average. Three-point attempt share is moved 6% farther from the mean, which undoes some of the pull toward the middle in 1.3.
The settings were chosen on 2015–2022. The four seasons after that were not used.
On that check window, 2022–23 through 2025–26, both rates are closer than 1.3 in every season. The other categories are unchanged, including total rebounds and the fantasy board, and 1.4 stays ahead of the Marcel baseline everywhere 1.3 was.
| Rate | 1.3 | 1.4 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3P% | .049721 | .044975 | −.004746 |
| 3PA share | .066018 | .065188 | −.000830 |
A player projected for fewer than about two threes is published at .000. In 2026–27 that is 224 of 860 players. Their three-point makes stay on the 1.3 count, so the fantasy three-point rate does not move. Games and minutes stay on 1.3 as well.
Each season
Three-point percentage is closer in every scored season. Attempt share is closer in every season except 2015–16.
| Season | 3P% | 3PA share |
|---|---|---|
| 2014–15 | −.015440 | −.001334 |
| 2015–16 | −.011330 | +.000999 |
| 2016–17 | −.014888 | −.001004 |
| 2017–18 | −.009579 | −.000338 |
| 2018–19 | −.007402 | −.000794 |
| 2019–20 | −.003274 | −.001044 |
| 2020–21 | −.005118 | −.001929 |
| 2021–22 | −.003568 | −.000633 |
| 2022–23 | −.005437 | −.000228 |
| 2023–24 | −.005814 | −.000934 |
| 2024–25 | −.005165 | −.001341 |
| 2025–26 | −.002567 | −.000818 |