Dwight Basketball 1.3: The box score agrees
Points and three-point attempt rates move toward the line the other rates already implied. Every other category stays on 1.2.
Basketball 1.3 leaves the 1.2 projection in place and changes three rates. Points per minute take half of the points implied by field goals, threes, and free throws. Three-point attempts per minute take half of the shot mix times field-goal attempts. Three-point attempt share takes a quarter of the ratio of those two attempt rates. The weights were chosen on 2015–2022. The four seasons after that were not used.
On that check window, 2023–2026, all three rates are closer than 1.2. The other fourteen categories are unchanged, and 1.3 stays ahead of the Marcel baseline on every category.
| Rate | 1.2 | 1.3 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / min | .057360 | .057064 | −.000296 |
| 3PA / min | .027508 | .027005 | −.000503 |
| 3PA share | .066536 | .066018 | −.000518 |
Field-goal attempts were offered the inverse of the shot-mix identity. Every positive share raised the error on the selection window, so that rate stays on 1.2. Games and minutes stay on 1.2 as well.
Each season
Three-point attempts per minute and three-point attempt share are closer in every scored season. Points are closer in nine seasons and farther in 2019–20, 2022–23, and 2023–24. The check-window mean for points is still closer.
| Season | Points / min | 3PA / min | 3PA share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–15 | −.000487 | −.000593 | −.000110 |
| 2015–16 | −.000948 | −.000945 | −.000398 |
| 2016–17 | −.000232 | −.000282 | −.001004 |
| 2017–18 | −.000087 | −.000366 | −.001045 |
| 2018–19 | −.001386 | −.000480 | −.000078 |
| 2019–20 | +.000210 | −.000527 | −.000110 |
| 2020–21 | −.001334 | −.000354 | −.000820 |
| 2021–22 | −.001222 | −.000610 | −.000532 |
| 2022–23 | +.000379 | −.000204 | −.001120 |
| 2023–24 | +.000262 | −.000180 | −.000177 |
| 2024–25 | −.001168 | −.000990 | −.000296 |
| 2025–26 | −.000656 | −.000639 | −.000480 |