Dwight Baseball 2.0: Wins move closer

Win projections are rewritten from the other pitcher rates. Every other rate is unchanged.

Win projections now read the other rates on the pitcher line. The direct win rate stays in the blend. Strikeouts raise wins. Holds and saves lower them, and walks and runs do too. Every other rate is unchanged.

The weights were chosen on 2024 and 2025. 2026 was not used. Error is lower in each season.

Grouped bar chart of pitcher win projection error before and after the 2.0 blend for 2024, 2025, and 2026 — Pitcher win MAE — the blend against the direct rate. Projected MAE, adjusted for league average and weighted by player BF.

Season	Before	After	Δ
2024	.08394	.08115	−.00279
2025	.08412	.08144	−.00268
2026	.08454	.08309	−.00145

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