Dwight Baseball 2.0: Strikeouts and hit by pitch

A recent strikeout season that disagrees with the career is downweighted. Hit by pitch uses a repeated-event shrink.

Batter strikeouts and hit by pitch are rewritten. The other rates stay.

Strikeouts keep most of the previous rate. The rest is an eight-season shrink. When the most recent season disagrees with the other seven, that season counts for less. The shrink was chosen on 2024 and 2025. 2023 and 2026 did not choose it.

Hit by pitch is a six-season shrink. A player hit in two or more of the last three seasons is regressed less than a one-year spike. A minor-league season is scaled to that season’s major-league rate. The same two seasons chose the scale.

Both rates are closer in every season from 2023 through 2026. Each interval includes zero.

Grouped bar chart of batter strikeout rate projection error before and after the 2.0 career shrink for 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026 — Batter strikeout MAE — the career shrink against the line before it. Projected MAE, adjusted for league average and weighted by player PA.

Season	Before	After	Δ
2023	.03033	.03006	−.00027
2024	.02856	.02847	−.00009
2025	.03161	.03148	−.00013
2026	.02838	.02831	−.00007

Grouped bar chart of batter hit-by-pitch rate projection error before and after the 2.0 repeated-event shrink for 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026 — Batter hit-by-pitch MAE — the repeated-event shrink against the line before it. Projected MAE, adjusted for league average and weighted by player PA.

Season	Before	After	Δ
2023	.00552	.00544	−.00008
2024	.00528	.00506	−.00022
2025	.00530	.00523	−.00007
2026	.00545	.00543	−.00002

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