Dwight Baseball 2.0: Five player groups
Handedness, minor-league transitions, prior closers, and young off-roster playing time each move. The other rates stay.
A second pass moves five groups that missed in the same direction in 2024, 2025, and 2026. The sizes were chosen on 2024 and 2025. 2026 did not choose them.
Right-handed batters strike out less in the projection, by .007. Left-handed batters strike out more, by .001. A batter whose last season was in the minors loses .010 of BABIP. A pitcher from the minors wins .015 less often per game and allows .20 more of ERA. A pitcher who saved at least four games in ten last year saves .08 less often per game. A batter under 24 who is off the opening-day roster, last seen in Triple-A, Double-A, or High-A, is pulled to 160 plate appearances. A pitcher under 26 in that spot moves part of the way to 220 batters faced.
Plate appearances are closer in every season from 2023 through 2026. The 2025 and 2026 intervals are below zero. 2023 earned runs are closer, and that interval is below zero.
| Season | Before | After | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 116.37 | 115.92 | −0.45 |
| 2024 | 112.62 | 112.42 | −0.20 |
| 2025 | 111.72 | 109.84 | −1.87 |
| 2026 | 117.07 | 115.53 | −1.54 |
The other rates that moved are closer on the four-year average. Strikeouts are higher in 2023. Saves are higher in 2023 and 2026. Those intervals include zero.
| Stat | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strikeouts | .03009 → .03033 | .02866 → .02856 | .03188 → .03161 | .02855 → .02838 |
| BABIP | .02778 → .02771 | .02673 → .02670 | .02733 → .02692 | .02709 → .02688 |
| BF | 110.81 → 110.10 | 112.34 → 111.86 | 110.09 → 109.78 | 101.89 → 101.76 |
| ERA | 1.007 → .999 | .972 → .971 | 1.087 → 1.083 | 1.047 → 1.042 |
| Wins | .08005 → .07969 | .08114 → .08101 | .08144 → .08125 | .08309 → .08278 |
| Saves | .02862 → .02911 | .02780 → .02647 | .02809 → .02635 | .03182 → .03219 |