Dwight 1.6: ERA moves up
ERA projections pass ZiPS; every other rate is unchanged from 1.5.
The 1.6 release of Dwight was completely focused on improving ERA projections. Error improves from 1.065 to 1.052, a clear step up that moves Dwight past ZiPS. Every other rate is unchanged from 1.5.
The full journey
At the launch of Dwight 1.1, stolen bases, hitter BABIP and pitcher BABIP were its three weakest spots. Stolen bases and pitching BABIP are now the best of any system. More significantly, Dwight has led all systems in pitcher wOBA since 1.3; and all systems in batting wOBA since 1.5.
ERA and hitter BABIP are still just middle of the pack, which makes them a continued target for improvement.
| Rate | 1.1 | 1.6 | Δ | 1.6 rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter SB | .0380 | .0336 | −.0044 | 1st |
| Batter wOBA | .02730 | .02638 | −.00092 | 1st |
| Batter BABIP | .0301 | .0270 | −.0031 | 5th |
| Pitcher wOBA | .0327 | .0298 | −.0029 | 1st |
| Pitcher BABIP | .0304 | .0285 | −.0019 | 1st |
| Pitcher ERA | 1.075 | 1.052 | −.023 | 6th |