Dwight 1.5: Dwight joins the leaders

Hitter wOBA narrowly leads ZiPS for the best in the field, and pitcher wOBA extends its lead.

Dwight 1.5 features numerous improvements across batting and pitching categories. The end result is that Dwight’s batting projection improves to become the most accurate overall (wOBA), joining a pitching projection that was already best in wOBA.

Batting

Dwight narrowly leads ZiPS for the best hitter wOBA of any system—the first time batting value sits at the top of the board.

Bar chart of batter wOBA projection error for Dwight 1.5, Dwight 1.4 and peer systems — Batter wOBA MAE — Dwight 1.5 narrowly leads ZiPS for best in the field. Projected MAE, adjusted for league average and weighted by player PA.

Home run projections return to the top, walks narrowly lead ZiPS and Steamer, and the stolen base lead widens. Hitter BABIP is tied with Steamer in the middle of the pack, behind ZiPS, The BAT, and The BAT X—a long way from where it started.

System	wOBA	HR	BB	SB	BABIP
Dwight 1.5	.02638	.0133	.01762	.0336	.0270
Dwight 1.4	.02731	.0137	.01820	.0338	.0278
ZiPS	.02640	.0137	.01763	.0348	.0268
Steamer	.02657	.0134	.01764	.0344	.0270
OOPSY	.02678	.0136	.01780	.0357	.0272
ATC	.02721	.0140	.01810	.0352	.0271
The BAT	.02762	.0141	.01810	.0352	.0269
The BAT X	.02794	.0142	.01810	.0349	.0269

Pitching

Pitcher wOBA extends the lead it opened in 1.3, dropping from .0302 to .0298—still clearly ahead of Steamer and every other system.

Bar chart of pitcher wOBA projection error for Dwight 1.5, Dwight 1.4 and peer systems — Pitcher wOBA MAE — Dwight 1.5 remains best in the field. Projected MAE, adjusted for league average and weighted by player BF.

Strikeout and BABIP projections are the best in the field, and walks narrowly lead ZiPS. ERA is the one pitching area still behind the leaders, after drifting from 1.061 in 1.2.

System	wOBA	SO	BB	BABIP
Dwight 1.5	.0298	.0317	.01747	.0285
Dwight 1.4	.0302	.0322	.01790	.0289
Steamer	.0319	.0327	.01780	.0287
OOPSY	.0330	.0320	.01780	.0289
ZiPS	.0342	.0323	.01748	.0286
ATC	.0372	.0327	.01760	.0286
The BAT X	.0568	.0324	.01850	.0289
The BAT	.0577	.0329	.01850	.0288

← All announcements