Dwight 1.4: BABIP gets better

Hitter and pitcher BABIP tighten, and pitcher wOBA widens its lead over the field.

Dwight 1.4 tightens BABIP on both sides of the ball. The baserunning and run-production strengths from 1.3 carry over intact, and pitcher wOBA widens its lead over the field.

Grouped bar chart of hitter and pitcher BABIP projection error for Dwight 1.1 through 1.4 — Batter and pitcher BABIP MAE across Dwight 1.1–1.4. Projected MAE, adjusted for league average and weighted by player PA (or BF for pitchers).

Batting

Batter wOBA holds near 1.3—still mid-pack, ahead of The BAT and The BAT X but now a hair behind ATC. Hitter BABIP still trails the best systems, so there’s more to gain there.

Bar chart of batter wOBA projection error for Dwight 1.4, Dwight 1.3 and peer systems — Batter wOBA MAE. Projected MAE, adjusted for league average and weighted by player PA.

Rate	1.3	1.4	Δ
Batter BABIP	.0286	.0278	−.0008

Pitching

Pitcher BABIP improves past OOPSY and The BAT X, though ZiPS, ATC, Steamer and The BAT remain ahead. Pitcher wOBA improves again, from .0305 to .0302, widening the gap over Steamer and every other system.

Bar chart of pitcher wOBA projection error for Dwight 1.4, Dwight 1.3 and peer systems — Pitcher wOBA MAE — Dwight 1.4 remains best in the field. Projected MAE, adjusted for league average and weighted by player BF.

Pitcher home run projections improve slightly as well, and ERA ticks down from 1.068 to 1.066—still behind the leaders after slipping from 1.061 in 1.2.

System	Batter wOBA	Pitcher wOBA
Dwight 1.4	.02731	.0302
Dwight 1.3	.02706	.0305
ZiPS	.02640	.0342
Steamer	.02657	.0319
OOPSY	.02678	.0330
ATC	.02721	.0372
The BAT	.02762	.0577
The BAT X	.02794	.0568

Rate	1.3	1.4	Δ
Pitcher BABIP	.0297	.0289	−.0008
Pitcher HR	.0137	.0134	−.0003
Pitcher ERA	1.068	1.066	−.002
Pitcher wOBA	.0305	.0302	−.0003

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