Dwight

Version 1.2

Published 01 OCT 2026

Dwight 1.2: Wins and losses both lead

Across the board improvement, including pitcher W and L that lead the field, and hitter wOBA trails only ZiPS.

Dwight 1.2 builds on the debut across batting and pitching. Pitcher W join the L lead from 1.1, and SB remain the main gap for the next release.

Pitching

Dwight adds the W lead to the lead in L it opened with. ERA, SO, BB and BABIP projections all improve as well.

Grouped bar chart of pitcher win and loss projection error for Dwight 1.2 and peer systems
Pitcher W and L MAE — Dwight 1.2 leads both. Projected MAE, adjusted for league average and weighted by player BF.
Rate 1.1 1.2 Δ
Pitcher W .0848 .0822 −.0026
Pitcher L .0775 .0755 −.0020
Pitcher ERA 1.075 1.061 −.014
Pitcher SO .0325 .0321 −.0004
Pitcher BB .0189 .0184 −.0005
Pitcher BABIP .0304 .0301 −.0003

Batting

Home runs go from a narrow lead to alone at the top, and RBI projections sit just behind Steamer. Hitter wOBA improves past Steamer, with only ZiPS ahead, and hitter BABIP takes a major step forward.

Rate 1.1 1.2 Δ
Batter wOBA .0273 .0266 −.0007
Batter HR .0134 .0132 −.0002
Batter RBI .0206 .0207 +.0001
Batter BABIP .0301 .0285 −.0016
Batter SB .0380 .0368 −.0012
Batter SO .0309 .0306 −.0003

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